USGS Seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones captivated Porter Ranch Neighborhood Council board members and stakeholders alike during her January 15 presentation, “Imagine America without LA” at Shepherd of the Hills Church. She has been tapped by Mayor Garcetti to partner with the City of Los Angeles in developing earthquake resilience strategies for Los Angeles.

Dr. Jones began by noting that Porter Ranch is as close as you can be to the Northridge fault; the fault is just 3 miles under Porter Ranch and 12 miles under Northridge. She reviewed the impact of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and presented the expected impact of a 7.8 earthquake along 200 miles of the San Andreas Fault. The numbers are staggering: 1,800 dead, 53,000 injured, 1,500 collapsed buildings, 300,000 damaged buildings, and $213 billion in damages. Dr. Jones summed up the prospects, “I can come up with a lot of ways to make you feel miserable about the future.”

The objective in responding to a disaster of this magnitude is urban disaster resilience: having a society that still functions after the earthquake. This is complicated by power, water, communications and transportation corridors that cross the San Andreas. Many of this infrastructure and services that cross the fault are not now designed to continue functioning in a significant earthquake. In particular, the Elizabeth Tunnel, which delivers water to Los Angeles, would be completely cut off. Cell phone towers would collapse and the communications conduit is not engineered to withstand the fault shifting. Our internet dependency and efficient economy, as exemplified by just in time delivery of food to our grocery stores from supply warehouses on the other side of the fault line, have left us more vulnerable in an earthquake.

What are some of the technologies now available? After the 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake in 2011, flexible pipes were the only pipes still functioning in the city’s water system. In the course of the 7.9 Denali, Alaska earthquake in 2002, no oil was spilled from the Alaska Pipeline, which is on rollers.

When asked, “What is the one thing that will solve our earthquake problems?” Dr. Jones specifies that there is not one thing. Our individual decisions affect the whole community. If your neighbor is not prepared and his house is damaged, it brings down your property values. We, as a whole, have to be good enough to keep on functioning so that people don’t leave the city.

How should we prepare? Each household should prepare with fire extinguishers, first aid kit, one gallon of water a day per person for at least three days, food for three days, emergency plan, and out of town contact point. Fire extinguishers are important because 1,600 fires are expected to ignite over time after the earthquake, some as a result of the power going back on, heating up lamps and other devices that have fallen on sofas and other combustible material.

Dr. Jones recommended that people with houses built before 1997 should get a foundation specialist to ensure that your house is bolted to its foundation. This is not expensive and could prevent a lot of damage. Homeowners should evaluate the need for earthquake insurance. During the Northridge earthquake one third of homes had earthquake insurance, now only 12% do.